GDP contraction in FY21 is inevitable, the only question is by how much

The government will release the Advance Estimates for gross domestic product (GDP) during 2020-21 on Thursday. It is a foregone conclusion that the economy will contract in FY21.

The GDP contracted an unprecedented 23.9 per cent in the first quarter and came in better than expected 7.5 per cent in the second quarter.


This yielded 15.7 per cent fall in GDP in the first half. The Reserve Bank of India has projected GDP to fall 7.5 per cent in the current fiscal year.

Most economists and agencies have projected GDP contraction around that figure only — within one percentage point here and there — with OECD and World Bank being exceptions.

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First Published: Tue, January 05 2021. 23:38 IST

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